With the passing of the FOMC rate decision, it has become clear that the Federal Reserve is taking a wait-and-see approach to the current situation regarding tariff policies. Although the vast majority of economists around the world have made predictions about what lies ahead, the effects have not yet been pronounced. Many of the recent tariff changes have also been revoked or put on pause for the largest industries, leaving many markets uncertain about the future. The key takeaway is that conditions will likely remain steady for now. The only other data release offering insight into what’s to come is the notable decline in U.S. retail sales, reflecting a reduction in consumer activity.
U.S. Retail Sales
Simmering trade wars have created a sort of start-and-stop economy, and the latest snapshot of retail sales in May underscores the threat to U.S. growth. Sales at retailers nationwide fell for the second month in a row, the government reported Tuesday. Receipts tumbled 0.9% in May after a small decline in April, based on seasonally adjusted numbers.
FOMC Rate Decision
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday stuck to its forecast of two interest-rate cuts in 2025 despite seeing a burst of inflation coming in the next few months as a result of higher tariffs. In an updated forecast, Fed officials now expect inflation, as measured by the core personal-consumption expenditures (PCE) index, to jump to 3.1% by the end of the year, up from a rate of 2.5% in April.
Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
• 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.01% for this week, with the current rates at 5.96%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of of -0.03% for this week, with the current rates at 6.81%
MND Rate Index
• 30-Yr FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.04% for this week, with the current rates at 6.41%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw a decrease of -0.05% for this week, with the current rates at 6.42%
Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 245,000 compared to the expected claims of 246,000. The prior week landed at 250,000.
What’s Ahead
Job data is due ahead next week as well as the more recent data from the U.S. trade deficits, which many have had their eyes on.