Leading off with the FOMC Minutes, the Federal Reserve has stated once again they will maintain a “gradual” approach to cutting interest rates, which has aligned with their goals of meeting their target 2% inflation goal. The PCE Index release numbers, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator, have shown everything is within expectations. So while the rate cuts may be a gradual process, there is much optimism that they are coming. Following those reports were the Personal Income Spending, GDP Estimates, and Consumer Confidence pending the holidays. Both the Persona Income and Spending have shown very strong results ahead of the holidays with the income beating expectations. This is met by extremely strong confidence coming from consumers as we see a 16-month high. This is finally corroborated by the GDP revisions which have shown the economy has shown steady growth for the entirety of the year.
PCE Index
The rate of inflation rose in October and moved further away from the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal, confirming a recent uptick in prices that could cajole the central bank into cutting interest rates less aggressively. The Federal Reserve’s preferred personal-consumption expenditures price index climbed 0.2% last month for the second month in a row, the government reported Wednesday.
Consumer Confidence
Consumer confidence reached a 16-month high in November, as Americans grew more optimistic about 2025. This optimism was fueled by rising stock prices, easing inflation, and a strong U.S. job market. The Conference Board reported on Tuesday that its consumer confidence index increased to 111.7 in November, up from a revised 109.6 in October, marking its highest level since mid-2023.
Personal Income/Spending
Consumer spending grew at a solid pace in October, driving a U.S. economic expansion that shows no signs of slowing as 2024 comes to a close. According to government data, household spending increased by 0.4% last month, while personal income rose by 0.6%, aligning with Wall Street expectations. Additionally, spending in September was significantly stronger than originally reported.
GDP Estimates
The U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 2.8% in the third quarter, according to revised figures, suggesting it entered the crucial holiday shopping season with strong momentum.
Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
• 15-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.08% with the current rate at 6.10%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.03% with the current rate at 6.81%
MND Rate Index
• 30-Yr FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.23% for this week. Current rates at 6.22%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw a decrease of -0.23% for this week. Current rates at 6.24%
Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 213,000 compared to the expected claims of 220,000. The prior week landed at 217,000.
What’s Ahead
The schedule is fairly packed, featuring key reports such as the Final Manufacturing PMI, which will reflect the year’s production performance, along with non-farm payrolls, hourly earnings, the unemployment rate, consumer credit data, and the year-end Consumer Sentiment report from the University of Michigan.