By Roger Young, Leading Mortgage Broker in Houston, TX 
Houston, the energy-fueled Bayou City sprawling across Harris County, entered late 2025 with a housing market exhibiting signs of cautious optimism: Inventory levels climbed to 3.5-4 months’ supply – up from a seller-skewed 2.5 – while pending sales gained 8-10% in the final quarter, mitigating a subtle slowdown in closings as rates stabilized above 6%. As a global powerhouse blending ExxonMobil’s innovations, the Port of Houston’s trade gateway, and cultural vibrancy from the Museum District to Montrose’s eclectic vibe, this metro magnet pulls professionals, families, and retirees with its economic dynamism, diverse neighborhoods like The Woodlands, and resilient spirit post-storms. Looking to 2026, syntheses from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), Fannie Mae, and Texas-specific forecasts from the Texas Real Estate Research Center (TRERC) and Houston Association of Realtors (HAR) outline a year of balanced momentum. With mortgage rates easing incrementally and inventory building, this analysis draws on these sources to unpack rate trajectories, home price appreciations, sales volumes, origination surges, and Houston-tailored factors – like energy sector transitions and hurricane preparedness – to guide Bayou borrowers through a resilient, opportunity-laden horizon.
National Mortgage Rate Trends Shaping 2026
The U.S. mortgage sector in 2026 is forecasted to provide gradual relief, stabilizing at thresholds that unlock sidelined demand without a full reversion to low-rate exuberance. Fannie Mae anticipates the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaging 6% throughout the year, dipping to 5.9% by December from 6.2% in late 2025, as the Federal Reserve’s funds rate settles near 3% and inflation moderates to 2.3%. NAR’s Chief Economist Lawrence Yun aligns, projecting a 6% annual average down from 6.7% in 2025, emphasizing that this “little bit better” environment – bolstered by ARM resets potentially below 6% – will catalyze activity as buyers acclimate and Treasury yields hold around 4%. The MBA forecasts rates in the 6-6.5% band, with optimistic paths to 5.5% amid further cuts, though persistent inflationary pressures from tariffs or supply chains could temper the descent.
In Houston, where jumbo loans fuel energy exec estates and fixed preferences guard against oil volatility, this national softening favors hybrid ARMs for $400,000 move-ups in Katy. Texas’ conforming limit ($832,750) accommodates 90% of transactions, but the metro’s 10-12% adjustable share – tied to ARM resets – may see heightened refinancing; brokers should prioritize buydowns, considering closing costs at 2-3% and property taxes averaging 2.1%.
Home Prices and Sales Volume: Bayou Balance
Nationally, 2026 heralds a shift from stagnation to surge. NAR projects median existing-home prices rising 4% after 3% in 2025, with sales volumes rocketing 14% to 5.3 million units – the end of three consecutive declines – as inventory expands 5-10% and pent-up millennial demand (40% of buyers) mobilizes. Fannie Mae revises sales to 7.3% growth and prices to a modest 0.4%, reflecting regional variances, while broader expert consensus eyes 2-4% appreciation amid controlled supply.
Texas’ Gulf Coast, anchored by Houston, mirrors this tempered rebound: TREC forecasts statewide median prices remaining flat or edging up slightly through mid-2026, with a potential 3-4% lift by year-end as falling rates stimulate mid-tier demand ($350K-$600K). For Houston, HAR data shows 2025 medians at $330,000, with 2026 projections calling for 3-4% growth to $340,000-$343,000, supported by positive job growth in energy and logistics despite mild labor softening later in the year. Sales could rise 10-12%, with inventory at 3.5-4 months’ supply (up from 2.8) curbing bidding wars; single-family homes in Spring gain 4%, while condos in Midtown soften 1-2% amid 15% multifamily permits. Days on market: 45-55, up from 40; in-migration from California (20% of demand) sustains velocity, though hurricane risks trim 5% of coastal listings.
Mortgage Originations: Energy Engine Uptick
Originations emerge as a powerhouse, with MBA forecasting an 8% national increase to $2.2 trillion in single-family volumes, loan counts up 7.6% to 5.8 million – 80% purchases as rate acclimation solidifies. Fannie Mae projects $2.32 trillion total, with refinances swelling to 20% via ARM adjustments.
Houston’s local surge could hit 12-15%, echoing Texas’ broader uptick from 200,000 net migrants and port expansions; conforming loans dominate 85% for $340,000 medians, but jumbos rise 10% for $500,000+ in River Oaks. First-timers (32%) tap TDHCA for 3% downs, amplifying activity.
Affordability and Buyer Sentiment in Focus
National price-to-income ratios improve to 5.5x, but Houston’s 4.5x remains accessible: $2,000 monthly on $340,000 at 6% suits $85,000 medians, though 12% insurance hikes from storms erode edges. Sentiment: 65-70% of Texas buyers plan purchases within 18 months, per NAR, with millennials (35%) eyeing Energy Corridor and retirees (15%) Clear Lake – despite 22% renewal pressures.
Emerging Trends: Technology and Sustainability
Digital transformation ramps: AI underwriting slashes times to 7-10 days, with 40% e-closings. In Houston, green mortgages with 0.125-0.25% discounts for flood-resilient upgrades may snag 18-20% uptake, aligning with state incentives for solar and elevated foundations – essential post-Harvey.
Key Challenges on the Horizon
Supply constraints endure at 10-12% below demand, with labor shortages delaying 12% of new builds. Regulatory FHA overlays could exclude 5% of applicants. Locally, Houston contends with 15% insurance premiums from hurricanes and energy transitions stalling 6% of listings; overbuilding in suburbs risks softening 3% of exurban values.
Looking Ahead: Houston’s Resilient Rebound
2026 positions Houston’s mortgage market for enduring progress, with easing rates and robust volumes countering controlled price growth. For brokers and borrowers in the Bayou’s embrace, the year emphasizes resilience – leveraging ARM opportunities, digital efficiencies, and green safeguards to weather challenges. As the energy capital innovates, proactive strides will channel these trends into tangible triumphs.